The leader of the Scottish Nationalists Alex Salmon and the head of the unionist campaign Alistair Darling have clashed in a TV debate while opinion polls suggest the No vote will win.
There’s a general consensus in the media that opinion polls put the NO vote at around 57% of the electorate while support for the YES vote in favour of independence is 43%. That would result in a comfortable win for the stay as it is campaign on September 18th when the referendum is held. Although most pundits believe the NO vote will creep up closer to the date nobody except those in the YES camp believe there will be a majority in favour of becoming an independent country.
Despite this there has been considerable speculation about what would happen to the economy and the currency should the YES campaign pull off an unlikely victory”
Despite this there has been considerable speculation about what would happen to the economy and the currency should the YES campaign pull off an unlikely victory. Asking around people in business north of the border has shown revealed conflicting opinions that reflect the split between the two sides.
Nobody wanted to go on the record although several said they didn’t think there would be much change as long as Scotland kept the pound. A couple suggested a short term boom to do with companies changing their corporate identity while others felt the doubt over the long term prosperity of Scotland was what was keeping the No vote buoyant. Many saw real business advantages in staying in the union with fears that costs would rise if Scotland went independent.
Looking outside the industry the property company Caledonian Trust Plc based in Edinburgh said in its interim results that the economic prospects for an independent Scotland "are not favourable". En-ergy giant SSE says: “a single energy market in Great Britain would be the most likely outcome in the event of a 'Yes' vote,” suggesting there would not be a change to how energy was charged but they did add the market would become more complex.
Investment firm Blackrock says Scottish independence would bring "major uncertainties, costs and risks while the travel industry appeared split over the economic outcome. Willie Walsh of British Airways thought independence was a positive for the industry due to Scottish government's pledge to cut and eventually scrap air passenger duty. Travel giant Thomas Cook disagreed and felt the referendum and the potential UK referendum on EU membership was creating "massive uncertainty" for business.
Whichever way the vote goes one thing is clear: Scotland will change. Westminster has already pledged they will hand over more powers to Hollyrood over tax and social security if voters rejected independence. Although pollsters say it won't happen so don't leave any sleep over it as the NO vote will win.
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